Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Analysis
Microsoft (MSFT) Intrinsic Value – Margin of Safety Analysis
(updated June 2021)
Normalized Diluted Earnings Per Share (TTM): $7.34
Cash Flow From Operations (CFO) Per Share (TTM): $9.53
Free Cash Flow (TTM): $7.05
Estimated Intrinsic Value: $190
Target Buy Price Based on Required Margin of Safety = $172
(Required Margin of Safety Based On Risk Stability Grade:
A = 10%, B = 20%, C = 30%, D = 40%, F = 50%)
Target SELL Price Based on Estimated Intrinsic Value = $228
(Allow Overvaluation Adjusted by Risk Stability Grade:
A = 20%, B = 15%, C = 10%, D = 5%, F = 0%)
Risk / Stability Grade: A
A grade indicates a quality company with a strong balance sheet, high earnings quality, and a positive business environment. These stocks require the slimmest margin of safety within the stock universe.
B grade indicates a company with a good balance sheet, good earning quality, and a stable business environment. The margin of safety required should be greater than stocks with an A grade but less than the average stock.
C grade indicates a company with a sufficient balance sheet, at least average earnings quality, and a reasonably stable business environment. The margin of safety required is greater than A & B stocks, but less than D & F stocks.
D grade indicates a company in good standing but has issues that could affect its stability and long term risks. D rated stocks should require a large margin of safety when purchased.
F grade indicates a company with significant issues that are currently affecting its stability and long term risks. Require an extremely large margin of safety for F rated stocks when purchased.
Dividend Safety Grade: A
A grade indicates an extremely low probability of a dividend cut. This rating is reserved for companies with strong balance sheets and/or excellent dividend histories.
B grade indicates a very low probability for a dividend cut.
C grade indicates a low probability for a dividend cut and/or average safety risk.
D grade indicates there are issues that should be considered concerning future dividend payments.
F grade indicates serious dividend safety risks. Investors should complete comprehensive due diligence before investing.
Earnings Quality Grade: A
A grade indicates earnings quality is high or far above average.
B grade indicates earnings quality is good and/or above average.
C grade indicates earnings quality is acceptable or average.
D grade indicates earnings quality is poor and requires thoughtful due diligence.
F grade indicates the quality of the earnings is poor or far below average requiring serious due diligence.
Earnings Report: 3/31/21
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AAAMP Portfolios Position Disclosures:
Treasure Trove Twelve – None
Dividend Growth & Income – None
Global Dividend Balanced – None
Aggressive Growth Balanced – None
High Yield Balanced – None
Global Yield – None
Industry: Software – Infrastructure
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three overarching segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops). Through acquisitions, Microsoft owns Xamarin, LinkedIn, and GitHub. It reports revenue in product and service and other revenue on its income statement.
The company is organized into three segments:
1. Productivity and Business Processes
This division focuses on Commercial and Consumer Office products including legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365 licensing and subscriptions, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Outlook, and OneDrive. Dynamics 365 offers cloud based applications to bring together the means for people to get their jobs done.
2. Intelligent Cloud
This is where Microsoft is looking for its future growth. The emphasis is on server products and services to power modern business. Products include Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and most importantly Microsoft Azure.
Azure is a cloud computing platform for planning, utilizing, and administering applications and services through a global network of datacenters.
3. More Personal Computing
Microsoft has never quit working to make the workplace more productive (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops). Through acquisitions, Microsoft owns Xamarin, LinkedIn, and GitHub.
Microsoft has a pristine balance sheet and the ability to make acquisitions to boost profitability and growth. The company’s old businesses are “cash cows” and its Azure platform is evolving into a promising growth business for the future.
Microsoft faces stiff competition in a world where technology is experiencing rapid change. The company faces formidable competition from Amazon, Google, Apple, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Oracle, SAP, Cisco Systems, and other titans in the industry.
Recent success under the management of Nadella has proven that Microsoft has the opportunity to excel in the current environment. A pristine balance sheet, successful flagship products, new cutting edge platforms, and what appears to be insightful management gives Microsoft solid opportunities for providing shareholders earnings and growth.
Amazon has a significant lead over Microsoft in the public cloud space. There is no room for large mistakes or errors given the intense competition both above and below the company. This is the area Microsoft must succeed in to justify the higher valuation being given the stock.
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While Arbor Investment Planner has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, we make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third-party information presented herein. The sole purpose of this analysis is information. Nothing presented herein is, or is intended to constitute investment advice. Consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.