Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Analysis

Exxon Mobil Dividend

Exxon Mobil (XOM) has paid a dividend every year since 1911 and increased its dividend for 42 consecutive years; qualifying the company as a Dividend Aristocrat and Dividend Champion.

Barriers to entry and strategic assets provide a small moat for Exxon Mobil. The company has used the current environment to build a rock-solid balance sheet. 

Current Dividend Annualized: $3.96

Exxon Mobil (XOM) Intrinsic Value – Margin of Safety Analysis            

(updated March 2025)

Normalized Diluted Earnings Per Share (TTM): $7.84
Free Cash Flow Per Share (TTM): $7.15
Cash Flow From Operations Per Share (TTM): $12.80

Estimated Intrinsic Value: $119

Target Buy Price Based on Required Margin of Safety =  $99
(Required Margin of Safety Based On Risk Stability Grade:

A = 0%, B = 20%, C = 40%, D = 60%, F = 80%)

Target SELL Price Based on Estimated Intrinsic Value = $149
(Allow Overvaluation Adjusted by Risk Stability Grade:

A = 40%, B = 25%, C = 15%, D = 5%, F = 0%)

Risk / Stability Grade: B

A grade indicates a quality company with a strong balance sheet, high earnings quality, and a positive business environment. These stocks require the slimmest margin of safety within the stock universe.

B grade indicates a company with a good balance sheet, good earning quality, and a stable business environment. The margin of safety required should be greater than stocks with an A grade but less than the average stock.

C grade indicates a company with a sufficient balance sheet, at least average earnings quality, and a reasonably stable business environment. The margin of safety required is greater than A & B stocks, but less than D & F stocks.

D grade indicates a company in good standing but has issues that could affect its stability and long term risks. D rated stocks should require a large margin of safety when purchased.

F grade indicates a company with significant issues that are currently affecting its stability and long term risks. Require an extremely large margin of safety for F rated stocks when purchased.

Financial Risk Grade:  A

A grade indicates an extremely low probability of a dividend cut. This rating is reserved for companies with strong balance sheets and/or excellent dividend histories.

B grade indicates a very low probability for a dividend cut.

C grade indicates a low probability for a dividend cut and/or average safety risk.

D grade indicates there are issues that should be considered concerning future dividend payments.

F grade indicates serious dividend safety risks. Investors should complete comprehensive due diligence before investing.

Business Quality Grade:  C

A grade indicates earnings quality is high or far above average.

B grade indicates earnings quality is good and/or above average.

C grade indicates earnings quality is acceptable or average.

D grade indicates earnings quality is poor and requires thoughtful due diligence.

F grade indicates the quality of the earnings is poor or far below average requiring serious due diligence.

Earnings Report:  12/31/24

AAAMP Portfolios Position Disclosures:
Treasure Trove Dividend (TTD) – LONG
Global Dividend Value (GDV) – LONG
Dividend Growth & Income (DGI) – LONG
Global Value (GV) – None
Global Value Aggressive (GVA) – None
Global Conservative Income (GCI) – LONG
Global High Income (GCI) – None 

Company Description

Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated

Company Overview:
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is a leading global energy company engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, refining, and chemicals. It operates across the entire energy value chain, from upstream (oil and natural gas production) to downstream (refining and petrochemicals). The company also invests in carbon capture, hydrogen, and biofuels as part of its strategy to adapt to the evolving energy landscape.

Company Strengths:
Exxon Mobil benefits from its vast scale, integrated operations, and strong global presence. The company has a diversified asset portfolio with high-quality reserves and industry-leading refining and chemical operations. Its disciplined capital investment strategy and strong cash flow generation allow it to maintain a stable dividend and execute share buybacks, making it attractive to long-term investors.

Company Challenges:
Exxon Mobil faces challenges from fluctuating oil and gas prices, increasing regulatory pressures, and the growing global shift toward renewable energy. The company must navigate the transition to lower-carbon energy while maintaining profitability in a highly competitive and capital-intensive industry. Additionally, geopolitical risks and environmental concerns pose ongoing challenges to its long-term strategy.

Disclaimer:
While Arbor Investment Planner has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, we make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third-party information presented herein. The sole purpose of this analysis is information. Nothing presented herein is, or is intended to constitute investment advice. Consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.