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McDonald’s (MCD) Stock Analysis

by | Dividend Aristocrats & Champions

McDonald's Arches
McDonald's You So Want One

McDonald’s Dividend

(updated 11/17/2017)

The McDonald’s dividend has been paid continuously since 1976 and increased for 41 consecutive years; qualifying the company for the Dividend Aristocrats and Dividend Champions list.

Price: $166.69
Current Dividend: $4.04

Dividend Yield: 2.4%
Cash Dividend Payout Ratio: 91%

Market Capitalization: 133 B
Enterprise Value: 160 B

Description

Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Restaurants

McDonald’s is the largest food service retailer in the world with over 36,000 locations in 120 countries. Revenue is generated through company owned restaurants, franchise royalties, and licensing pacts.

McDonald’s restaurants are 85% owned and operated by independent entrepreneurs (with a future target of 95%). Their restaurants offer a mostly uniform menu although, in order to meet the preferences and tastes of local customers, variations are made geographically.

The value-priced menu centers around their hamburgers and cheeseburgers. Iconic menu items include the Big Mac, Quarter Pounder, Filet-O-Fish, Chicken McNuggets, World Famous Fries, and more recently McCafe beverages and McFlurry desserts.

          Dividend Analyzer Checklist

                                  (updated November 2017)

Dividend Safety Score (10/33 points)

Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm): 41%
Cash Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm):  91%  (4/12 points)
Dividend Per Shares (ttm): $3.76
Cash From Operations (CFO) Per Share (ttm): $7.01
Free Cash Flow (FCF) Per Share (ttm): $4.76
Net Financial Debt: $25968 M
Total Assets: $32795 M
Net Financial Debt / Total Assets: 79% (0/12 points)
Net Financial Debt to EBITDA (ttm): 261%
Piotroski Score (1-9) (TTM): (6/9 points)

Profitability & Growth Score (16/33 points)

Operating Earnings Yield (ttm): 6.8% (8/15 points)
Net Income (ttm): $5079 M
Gross Profit (ttm): $10443 M
Total Assets: $32785 M
Gross Profitability Ratio = GP / Total Assets: 32% (8/12 points)
Cash Return On Invested Capital (CROIC)(tttm): 16%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): 20%

Valuation Score (12/34 points)

Free Cash Flow Yield (ttm): 2.9% (7/9 points)
EV to EBIT (ttm): 17.1
EV to EBITDA (ttm): 15.6 (5/17 points)
PE10: 33.8 (0/7 points)
Price to Sales Ratio (ttm): 5.8
Price to Book Value (ttm): n/a
Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) (ttm):  24
PE 10: 34

TOTAL POINTS – (38/100) (50 is an average score)

Earnings Report:  10/24/17

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SWOT Analysis For McDonald’s

Strengths

McDonald’s powerful brand and size (which provides economies of scale) provide sustainable competitive advantages. McDonald’s has enjoyed world wide success because of its franchisee system (local entrepreneur ownership), a uniform value priced menu of iconic choices, and corporate management that has generally provided a platform for success.

McDonalds’ CEO Steve Easterbrook has initiated all-day breakfast successfully. In addition they’re trying higher quality ingredients, and emphasizing coffee/snacking convenience items while not disturbing their strong value-priced menu.

Weaknesses

Volatility in commodity prices, rising labor costs, food borne illnesses, and foreign currency fluctuations (over 60% of MCD profits come from outside the U.S) are all part of the challenges of operating a global company. Low barriers to entry allow intense competition from global, regional, and local competitors.

Opportunities

The company is making a big effort to become more flexible. Its recent successful move to serve breakfast all day was an example. They’re doing some limited experiments with different formats that provide more ordering flexibility (i.e. kiosks, and mobile ordering), and menu customization (ability to custom build burgers and sandwiches).

With delivery being a major trend no one is better positioned that McDonalds when it comes to location. McDonalds is closer to more customers than any other restaurant in the world. In McDonalds top 5 markets nearly 75% of the population lives within three miles of one of their restaurants.

Threats

The quick service restaurant industry is extremely competitive, subject to price wars, rising labor costs, and increasing concerns about food quality and healthy eating. The fast casual category is very mature and growing chains such as Five Guys, In-N-Out Burger, and Shake Shack put pressure on McDonalds to keep prices low and/or upgrade their product offerings. It’s a tough business.

Conclusion

(updated November 2017)

McDonald’s (MCD) is ranked #207 (out of 377) overall and #57 (out of 61) in the Consumer Cyclical Sector by the Dividend Analyzer. There are currently many better choices in the Consumer Cyclical sector and the stock market in general.

Type of Investor / Recommendation
Large Diversified Dividend Portfolios / AVOID
Looking For Exposure to Consumer Defensive Sector / AVOID
Deep Value Investors / AVOID

Portfolio Position Disclosures:
DVB Foundation Portfolio: None
DVB Dividend Growth Portfolio: None
DVB High Income Portfolio: None
Arbor Asset Allocation Model Portfolio (AAAMP): None

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Disclaimer: While Arbor Investment Planner has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, we make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third-party information presented herein. The sole purpose of this analysis is information. Nothing presented herein is, or is intended to constitute investment advice. Consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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