(281)-719-8904 KenFaulkenberry@AAAMP.com

Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Analysis

by | Dividend Aristocrats, Dividend Champions

Exxon Mobil Logo

Exxon Mobil Dividend

(updated 12/13/2017)

Exxon Mobil (XOM) has paid a dividend since 1911 and increased its dividend for 34 consecutive years; qualifying the company as a Dividend Aristocrat and Dividend Champion.

Price: $83.06
Dividend Yield: 3.7%

Current Dividend: $3.08
Cash Flow From Operations (CFO) Per Share (ttm:) $7.10
Free Cash Flow Per Share (ttm): $3.60

Market Capitalization: 352 B
Enterprise Value: 394 B

Dividend Analyzer Checklist

(updated November 2017)

Dividend Safety Score (20/33 points)

Dividend Payout Ratio (ttm): 109%
Cash Dividend Payout Ratio: 87%  (4/12 points)
Net Financial Debt: $37893 M
Total Assets: $343012 M
Net Financial Debt / Total Assets: 11% (9/12 points)
Net Financial Debt to EBITDA (ttm): 120%
Piotroski Score (1-9) (TTM): (7/9 points)

Profitability Score (13/33 points)

Operating Earnings Yield (ttm): 4.1% (6/15 points)
Net Income (ttm): $11690 M
Gross Profit (ttm): $79484 M
Total Assets: $343012 M
Gross Profitability Ratio = GP / Total Assets: 23% (7/18 points)
Cash Return On Invested Capital (CROIC)(tttm): 7%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): 5%

Valuation Score (18/34 points)

Free Cash Flow Yield (ttm): 4.1% (9/17 points)
EV to EBIT (ttm): 27.5
EV to EBITDA (ttm): 11.0  (9/17 points)
Price to Sales Ratio (ttm): 1.4
Price to Book Value (ttm): 2.0
Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) (ttm): 30
PE 10:  13

TOTAL POINTS – (51/100) (50 is an average score)

Earnings Report: 10/27/17
Next Earnings Report: 1/31/18

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Rankings & Recommendations

(updated November 2017)

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is ranked #152 (out of 377) and #5 (out of 24) in the Energy Sector by the Dividend Analyzer .

If the price of oil were to stay low for years (doubtful) this would be the last company standing. If prices rebound it could provide above average rates of return. Exxon Mobil, Helmerich & Payne (HP), and Chevron (CVX) are the only stocks I would consider for the long term in the energy sector at this time. Because of the dividend, XOM is a viable long term holding.

Type of Investor / Recommendation

Large Diversified Dividend Portfolios / Should Be Considered
Looking For Exposure to Energy Sector / Should Be Considered
Deep Value Investors / Watchlist

Company Description

Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated

Exxon Mobil (XOM) is a global integrated oil & gas company. It is involved in exploration and production of petroleum products including the transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas, liquids, and other petroleum products. The company is one of the largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals in the world.

The company operates in three segments: Upstream (exploration & production), Downstream (manufacturer and sale of products), and Chemical.

Exxon Mobil is one of only a few companies that really plans for the long, long term. This includes the realization that diverse energy supplies will be required.

SWOT Analysis For Exxon Mobil

Strengths

Exxon Mobil has an unmatched ability to complete projects only a few companies could even imagine tackling. Their flexibility to take advantage of opportunities, access capital to finance projects at favorable rates, and deliver on commitments is unmatched.

The combination of Exxon’s ability to be the low cost producer and obtain a cost of capital below its peers provides a powerful moat. Regardless of oil prices, XOM has the ability to beat its competition.

An incredible amount of capital expenditures (over 180 billion in five years) has Exxon in the position to bring on long-life production that will improve margins (versus their competition) and allow the company to temporarily lower its investment level for a few years. By 2018 nearly 50% of their production will come from long-life projects. This improves cash flow and provides support for dividend safety.

Weaknesses

Historical levels of profitability are unlikely to be matched anytime soon without higher commodity prices. Like its peers, XOM may be facing several years without the ability to grow revenues.

Opportunities

While low oil prices temporarily hurt all oil companies, the strongest (XOM is THE strongest) are able to take advantage of bargains anywhere on the globe. Those that have the ability are able to buy the best assets at favorable terms.

Threats

Lower commodity prices and geopolitical risks are Exxon’s largest threats. There appears to be a rising tide of nationalism around the world. If this trend continues geopolitical risks could bring unforeseen challenges to Exxon production and costs.

In addition, global institutions, particularly governments, are attacking all carbon based businesses. New rules and regulations, in addition to punitive taxes, are all possibilities in this environment.

Portfolio Position Disclosures:
DVB Dividend Kings & Aristocrats: None
DVB Dividend Growth: None
DVB High Income: None
Arbor Asset Allocation Model Portfolio (AAAMP): None

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Disclaimer: While Arbor Investment Planner has used reasonable efforts to obtain information from reliable sources, we make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of third-party information presented herein. The sole purpose of this analysis is information. Nothing presented herein is, or is intended to constitute investment advice. Consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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